Thursday 18 April 2013

Playoff Predictions

Barring an absolute failure, the Canucks should easily make the playoffs this year. They need only 2 points to clinch a playoff spot, and are 4 points up on the Wild, so they should also be able to win their Division. But what happens after that? Here's my prediction for this year:

I predict that the Canucks are a first round elimination. They will most likely be facing Minnesota or St Louis, both who have proved to be troublesome for the Canucks during the regular season. But that's not what i'm worried about. I'm worried about their lack of depth

Let's start with the defense. When everyone is healthy, our starting defense lineups are not something that an opposition wants to face. Now in the terrible event that a defender is injured, not uncommon in a playoff run, who replaces them? Enter Cam Barker and Andrew Alberts. Both Alberts and Barker could be described as 'emergency use only.' You only want them when all your other viable options are gone. Sure, they can do fine for a while on the 3rd string. But if you're even thinking about making a cup run, you need to have guys that could fill in, instantly. Take the 2011 cup run for example. Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Final, Hamhuis goes for a hip check on Lucic, and ends up blowing out his groin. Chris Tanev was able to fill in, because he was a responsible defender who could adapt. Where's this years Tanev? Any injury in the defensive area, and we're screwed.

Alright, now for the offense. Here's what the lines will most likely be:

Sedin-Sedin-Burrows
Higgins-Kesler-Hansen
Raymond-Roy-Kassian
Pinizzotto-Lapierre-Weise

You'll notice the only real change is that Roy is centring the third line, instead of being on Keslers wing. This is a simple decision. Andrew Ebbett cannot and should not play there. He gets crushed, and has been unable to generate any offense. So Roy is bumped down to the third, and hopefully they have great chemistry. Relax, guys. I'm going somewhere with this.

So with these lines, we have 3 lines that can put the puck in the net and a checking line. But who faces off against the oppositions top lines? Sedins can't do it, they're 100% useless in their own zone. I feel that Roy is too small to effectively shut down the top lines, and Lapierre just doesn't have the defensive skill to do itl. That leaves Kesler, which means we shirk our secondary scoring to Roy. Roy cannot lift this team through 4 rounds of intense hockey, and will not.

In case you didn't get what I was going for there, I'm saying that the Sedins will get shut down, Kesler will be forced to play defensive hockey against top lines, and our main scoring will be up to Roy.

Like I said, first round elimination.

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